child-wirth-ebookThe ebook continues on a roll.  March 8-14 was national Read an e-Book week and by all accounts was well received.  As if to underscore the continued success of the electronic reading format, the American Association of Publishers announced that e-books sales were up 68.4 percent for 2008.  This amid a mostly gloomy assessment of down publisher sales. Smashwords, a blog focused on ebooks, characterizedd the  growing popularity of the ebook format thus:

For the five years between 2002 and 2007 (Click herefor data, opens a PDF), overall trade book sales averaged an annual increase of 2.5% (lower than inflation, which means unit sales probably decreased), while ebooks for the same period turned in a 55.7% average annualized increase.

As any numbers guy or gal will tell you, it’s easy to show great sales growth when you’re growing off of a small base. But when sales show sequential acceleration off of sequentially increasing bases (meaning, you grow faster as you grow larger), then something really interesting is taking place.

If you extrapolate the 70% growth for five more years (and I would argue 70% is a relatively conservative number), then ebooks rise to $1.6 billion, and assuming a 2% growth rate of the overall trade book sales to $26.7 billion (generous), ebooks would then represent a respectable 6% of sales.

stanzaNot quite a tipping yet, but approaching one.  Other news on the ebook front underscored the continuing interest by authors and publishers in exploring the ebook domain.

  • Novelist Danielle Steel released 71 of her works, including the new One Day at a Time, as ebookson Amazon.com and The eBook Store by Sony. This is the first time Steel’s books, which are published by the Random House division of Bantam Dell, have been made available in digital format.
  • In November, Random House announced it would be making 8,000 to 15,000 additional books from its list  available in digital form.
  • Apple’s popular iPhone, now in use by nearly 20 million people, is also creating a a new market for e-books with free applications like Stanza, an e-book reader for the iPhone, making it easier to read books on the go. Users download the app for free directly from their phones. The popularity of the application is told by the nearly one million downloads so far. 
  • The Canadian bookselling chain Indigo has launched a service called Shortcoversto market e-books to smartphones and computers.  The firm will initially offer about 50,000 titles, priced from $4.99 to $19.99 (US$4.02 to US$16.11), and chapters will be available for 99 cents (80 US cents) each.  Some 200,000 sample chapters will be available for free.  Shortcovers will offer recommendations to users based on their reading habits and is creating a forum where self-published and unpublished writers can submit a chapter from a novel, a short story or an article, and list them for free, with ads or for 99 cents without ads.

The ebook continues to march steadily toward mainstream acceptance despite ebook reader war, pricing confusinos and a still modest inventory of titles.  While it’s still difficult to predict exactly what an ebook world will look like, it does seem more certain that we are heading toward one.

 


 

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sony-ebook-readerOver the last several years, e-books have experienced good growth relative to the overall market for books.  However, their overall share of that market is still small despite the fact that e-books have been around for years.  Some of the factors often cited for this are:

  • Readability
  • Limited player feature sets
  • Incompatible e-book formats 
  • No pricing standards

The first two factors will no doubt be resolved by ongoing technological progress and market competition.   The third factor will probably be resolved in one of two ways:  either open standards will be adopted or some proprietary player will so dominate the market that its format will become the de facto standard.  (No doubt Jeff Bezos hopes Kindle will achieve the second outcome.)

The fourth factor, I believe, is reallythe most important becaue it is a symptom of confusino both on the part of pubishers and their customers.  The confusion is that pricing is set by reference to content rather than experience.  Publishers often  try to justify e-books prices relative to the price charged for a printed book.  Customers still see an e-book as less valuable than a printed book because it doesn’t offer the same physical experience.  Publishers and e-book manufacturers should work to create an e-book experience that is not tied to that of a printed work. 

How would we make that that experience  different?  By rethinking what a computer can (and can’t) do for the reading experience. 

reel-of-filmWhen films first made the scene in the early twentieth century, they were often staged like plays.  The early film aesthetic was limited by film making technology, the experience of filmmakers and the readiness of audiences to make cognitive that cinema allows – e.g. the manipulation of time.  As film entertainment has evolved, audiences no longer expect that a film experience has to mirror that of a play. 

We are approaching that point with e-books where it time to define a new reading experience.   Most e-books are still very close mirrors of their print book progenitors.  But there is so much more that can be done.  For example:

  • Advanced search features
  • Sharing the experience with other readers in real time
  • Easy switch between reading text and listening to an audio version of the book.
  • More graphics, illustrations and video
  • Internal and external linking via wireless connection
  • Dictionary features like every word defined or foreign words pronounced
  • Bookmarking and excerpting
  • Built in note taking

The feature wish list will grow as readers become more accustomed to e-books.  The one thing we shouldn’t do is try to value e-books in the same way we value print books.  The redaing motivations and experiences are different for each type of book.  In fact, someday we may want to stop calling the electronic reading experience an “e-book.”

ebook-markdown1Once we have an e-book aesthetic that is truly independent of the print book experience, pricing and marketing can be liberated from print considerations which reflect production and channel considerations that don’t exist for e-books.  In the reader’s mind, there will be a completely new set of value judgments by which to determine whether to purchase that experience. 

Of course, this presents challenges for both publishers and authors.  Instead of simply taking print book content and “dumping” it into an e-book format, a greater restructuring will be needed to create a differentiated e-book experience; this is similar to what happens in making an audiobook or, better, a movie based on a print title.  This extra work will create a greater value in the eye of the customer and allow publishers greater pricing freedom and standardization.


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