Future Perfect Publishing

petabyte-storage

The July 2008 issue of Wired has a thought provoking article by Chris Anderson entitled The Petabyte Age.  A petabyteis an unimaginably large amount of data - 1,000 terabytes or a quadrillion bytes.  The article catalogs a number of important applications using datasets measured in petabytes; everything from agriculture to politics.  Anderson has asserted that the availability of these huge datasets is lessening our reliance on the predictive value of theory and mathematical / statistical models.  Models have an elegant and convenient compactness, but often a limited predictive ability.  “Big data” closes the predictive gaps if you have the storage and processing power to manipulate and make sense of it.

The Petabyte Age is the natural outcome of three “laws” (ahem, recall those compact models).  These are Moore’s Lawwhich governs the growth in computer processing power; Kryder’s Law which predicts hard disk storage cost per unit of information; and Butter’s Law which measures the capacity of the fiber optic network underpinning the Internet.  These laws are synergistic - processing power can be greatly amplified by hooking servers and PCs together in computing networks; storage can be extended via disk arrays; and huge datasets can be accessed over high speed, high capacity fiber optic networks. 

So all this discussion of “Big Data” got me thinking: The whole bibliosphere could be radically changed.

• Authors could tap into gigantic databases to do incredibly detailed research on people and places.  Novelists could scan the entire body of literature to see where “story gaps” might exist to be exploited. 
• Publishers could track readership trends based on accumulated book sales data and accurately predict the success or failure of any book prior to its publication.   
• Readers could go to their favorite online bookstore get a pinpoint recommendations based upon analyses of buying histories, correlated with with behvaioral, demographic and psychographic profiles. 

But the one thing that probably won’t change is the way we package all the new knowledge that “peta processing” delivers?  We will likely use the same book size packets - whether in print or electronic form - we use today.  Why?

brain-processing

The book is the anti-petabyte.  It is perfectly tuned to the human mind.  Stories are how we make sense of things.  Our brains are confronted by petabytes of raw data during our lives; yet the memories we create out of that torrent can be squeezed into a terabyte or two.  The stories we tell - whether of fact or fiction - represents the imprecise model, the compact and convenient approximations that leave us wanting more.  Biologists tell us that this filtering is the core of our success as a species. 

I can marvel at the power of Big Data and Cloud Computing.  But being human, I will always believe the real power lies in the Little Story.

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New Society Publishers is committed to facilitating social change and its mandate embraces a broad social transformation toward sustainability.  But New Society Publishers goes beyond simply publishing books on topics such as globalization, green building, renewable energy, conscientious commerce and sustinable living.  As a business, it walks the talk.  In 2005, New Society became the first North American publishing company to become carbon neutral.  The company has also received the Ethics in Action award in 1997 for ongoing social responsibility, and again in 2002 for environmental excellence.

All of this is not surprising, given the activist roots of its principals, Christopher and Judith Plant.  Chris Plant started his publishing career in the South Pacific as an organizer with the Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific movement and as an editor with the Institute of Pacific Studies in Fiji.  Judith Plant is a former adult educator who became an author with the release in 1990 of her highly successful book, Healing the Wounds: The Promise of Ecofeminism published by New Society.  We recently interviewed Chris and Judith Plant about the focus and direction of New Society Publishers.

FPP: How did you come to choose publishing as a way to express your activism?

Chris & Judith:  Getting the word out is a large part of activism of any kind; you need informed people to make a difference. We originally started publishing a magazine to enable communities scattered over a large geography to know what their issues were and how they were dealing with them. Oftentimes, they were facing similar struggles - forestry, watershed issues, toxic wastes, etc - and having to reinvent the wheel over and over again instead of being able to learn from each other. Sharing issues and solutions became the meat-and-potatoes of what we published.

FPP:  You have described yourselves as bioregionalists. Can you explain what that means and how that has affected your day-to-day operations and publishing decisions?

Chris & Judith:  The bioregional view sees the local as the focal point, the locus, of all action. We all live in a place, and caring for that place is the most immediate thing one can do. Understanding your place used to be the key to obtaining your water, your food, and your security. But in a globalized world, that all changed. However, as the global system crumbles through the pressures of Peak Oil and other long emergencies, the ‘local’ promises once again to become the most important aspect of most peoples’ lives. The Relocalization movement is all about this trend.

FPP:  New Society Publishers is on Gabriola Island in the province of British Columbia. Does that present challenges for you?

Chris & Judith:  Only if you miss the city! No, it’s an ideal life here. We’re on a beautiful Gulf Island in a quiet piece of forest, a short walk away from the seashore, connected to some of the best and most interesting people in the world through our work. My husband and I have a 30 foot commute, our staff often bicycle to work, and we give ourselves lots of time off. How challenging is that?! Seriously, though, publishing is the ultimate ‘electronic village’ occupation: it can be done from anywhere. And, to keep a balance, we do in fact venture out into the ‘real world’ every now and then, to rub shoulders with activists and authors and make sure we aren’t too cut off from most peoples’ day to day realities.

FPP:  Your company has a focus on publishing books that help to build an ecologically sustainable and just society. How has this focus developed over the life of New Society Publishers?

Chris & Judith:  In the beginning, in Philadelphia, the publishing operation was the propaganda arm of the Movement for a New Society whose aim was nonviolent revolution and opposition to the war in Vietnam, to nuclear weapons, etc. As times changed, the publishing element became autonomous, and we evolved the mandate of the publishing company around what we considered to be the key overarching issues of the day. Ecological sustainability and social justice remain the deep fabric of human habitation on this planet.

FPP:  What is the typical profile of a New Society Publishers author - or is there such a thing?

Chris & Judith:  Active, committed, eloquent, upbeat, capable, compassionate - and among the best human beings in the world!

FPP:  New Society Publishers has gone carbon neutral. This is a pretty major step for a book publisher. What were the hurdles you had to overcome as a print publisher to get there?

Chris & Judith:  When we took the step to committing to print all of our books on 100% Post Consumer Waste paper in 2001, it was a major commitment. No-one had done such a thing before. Every other publisher thought we were crazy because it added a significant cost to the production of a book - and who cared anyway? We had three tremendous allies in taking this step. First, New Leaf Paper from San Francisco who could provide the 100% PCW paper stock and who pulled out all the stops to help us do it. Second, our printer in Manitoba who had faith enough in us to order two truckloads of paper, not knowing if we would be able to actually pull off our commitment and use it all up. And third, the Markets Initiative group who were so totally convinced that change in paper use had to happen that they inspired us to take the risk of helping to change the publishing industry. After our paper commitment, going carbon neutral was a breeze!

FPP:  Do you see more publishers opting for this direction in the future?

Chris & Judith:  Yes. The Green Press Initiative - publishers who have taken similar vows - is growing all the time.

FPP:  Given the concerns about global climate change and all of its effects, are you seeing more demand for your titles than in previous years and changes in the readership for your titles?

Chris & Judith:  Absolutely! Our topics of concern have all of a sudden become mainstream. That’s what we were struggling to achieve all along and now that it’s a reality, it’s very exciting to be at the forefront of the trend. A part of our list was always designed to ‘mainstream’ the movement; now we’re seeing way more so-called ordinary people take on the key issues of our time.

FPP:  What role, if any, do you see technology playing in the way you will produce and market books in the future?

Chris & Judith:  As Peak Oil works its way through the system, shipping a heavy commodity like books around the universe is going to have to become a thing of the past. Physical books will occupy a special and sentimental slot in our lives. Electronic books’ time will come!

FPP:  What do you see as the biggest challenges for book publishers in the next few years?

Chris & Judith:  Coming to terms with Peak Oil and the restructuring of an entire industry. Publishing has to move from: books to e-books, from bricks and mortar bookstores to cyberstores, from shelves and warehouses filled with books to point of sale machines that print books on demand - if you really need to have a physical copy at all.

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Bruce Batchelor has long been a publishing pioneer, innovator and leading advocate for independent (”indie”) publishing.  He recently shared his experiences as a publisher, as well as the challenges and opportunities facing the book publishing industry today.  Bruce is the founder of Trafford Publishing, where he publisher more than 10,000 authors from over 100 countries during 11 years as the company’s publisher and CEO.  In 1995, while at Trafford, he invented print-on-demand (POD) based publishing. 

He is the author of numerous books, including his latest, Book Marketing DeMystified.  Always an entrepreneur, Bruce has been the recipient of an Award of Excellence from The Financial Post and recognized by Profit Magazine as CEO of one of Canada’s top ten fastest growing companies in 2004) and 2005.  Today he heads up Agio Publishing, his latest book publishing venture.  

FPP - Publishing has always been a tough business. How did you get started and what motivated you to enter the business?

Bruce - My first publishing was simple and profitable: our high school yearbook was a money-maker, then I published a monthly high school newspaper (also profitable). After university, I self-published a book of stories and maps of the Yukon River and that was a lovely income source for many years — and regional bestseller. Then, with a group of friends, we published The Lost Whole Moose Catalogue: a Yukon Way of Knowledge” in 1979 — that sold over 20,000 copies and stayed in print for 25 years and inspired two sequels and the creation of a northern publishing company. So I didn’t realize publishing was supposed to be a tough business — it was a fall-back source of money for me when I wasn’t doing other work-adventures.

FPP- At Trafford Publishing, you pioneered the idea of print on demand. What inspired this innovation and what hurdles did you have to overcome to put it into action?

In 1994 I was consulting to a number of provincial and federal (Canadian) ministries to help them cut costs on publishing technical and policy manuals. These documents need changing periodically, so are ill-suited to offset printing. That’s when I discovered print-on-demand technology existed and could be used to print a single copy “on-demand”. Up to this point, the technology was being marketed as suitable for short runs of 300 to 500 copies. The challenge was to be able to show a catalogue of documents, take orders (with payment) and submit up-to-date print files to the DocuTech device — all in an automated fashion so the clerical-accounting overhead wouldn’t be too onerous. Fortunately the world-wide web was just beginning, so we created one of the first on-line stores (in 1995) to display our wares, collect orders and credit card payment, and relay the printing instructions and shipping papers to our contracted print shop.

The next hurdle was getting books/manuals/whatever to sell. We began with a few government manuals but soon began to solicit new books from authors and publishers. From that point, the business grew exponentially until Trafford Publishing had over 140 employees, offices in 4 countries, and sales of about $1 million per month. By the time I left in 2006, we’d published about 10,000 titles for authors living in over 100 countries.

FPP- After leaving Trafford, you formed a new company called Agio. Could you describe Agio’s basic business model and what do you think is most unique about Agio’s service offerings for authors?

Bruce - “Conventional” publishers incur all the expenses and have all the control over the content, appearance and marketing.

Agio and similar “collaborative” publishers share the costs and share the control.

Self-publishing on one’s own or using a service such as Trafford or AuthorHouse or Lulu means the author pays all the costs and has all the control.

At Agio, we only work with authors and books that intrigue and inspire us. The approach is collaborative. We insist on top-quality writing, editing and design. We contribute about half of the costs, and share the royalties with the author (Agio gets 20%; author gets 80%). We create customized marketing campaigns, and expect the author to be active in promotions. We don’t sell books to retailers on a returnable basis and we use short discounts to maximize royalties.

FPP- On Agio’s website it states that “Our company is committed to corporate social responsibility . . ” Could you explain how that affects your daily operation and management of the firm?

Bruce - Here are some of the things we do.

•  We print on-demand so there is minimal waste
• The paper stock is not from virgin old growth
• We generously support social and environmental charities
• We only work on books that are positive (or benign) about social and environmental change
• We don’t support ‘returnable’ book sales because this causes overprinting and wasted resources
• Zero commuting costs (we work from a home-office!)
• We share our ideas through presentations and my blog
  - we consult to other publishing companies to help them adapt to the changing business environment.

FPP - How do you see technology impacting book publishing over the next 5
years?

Bruce- The industry is being transformed — in much the same way the music industry is, only the book publishing industry is a few years behind. Rising resource costs and better technologies will accelerate the adoption of eBooks — regardless of what booksellers and old-school publishers might hope. Bookstores will fail, following the pattern of music shops and video stores. The books that are bought in printed editions will be produced using print-on-demand, with POD factories located in every major city and all countries.

Because the cost to “publish” is heading toward zero, the number of new titles will balloon from 2007’s count of 411,000 annually in the USA to 1 million.

The major publishing companies will lose their oligopoly advantages and will dwindle in scale and importance.

FPP- What Internet marketing tools have proven the most effective in your experience?

Bruce - Know your audience and target your publicity to them. Certainly selling on a short discount is a great help since you are gaining way more royalty per sale.

FPP- You are both a publisher and an author. Does being an author yourself help when you are working with Agio’s clients?

Bruce - Yes. I can relate well to their emotional and financial situations, and that helps both comfort and inspire them to push for clarity and quality in their books and marketing.

FPP - What is the profile of your ideal author client in today’s publishing environment?

Bruce - Someone with joy in their heart and a message to communicate.

FPP - What do you believe are the biggest challenges facing the publishing industry today?

Bruce - Inertia in processes and thinking. The US book publishing industry is wasting between $1 billion and $2 billion each year because of widespread paranoia about ending the practice of overprinting and selling books on consignment (”returnable”). That practice could be changed in months if a handful of publishers showed leadership and attention to the environment and their own financial situation!

The blockbuster top selling authors will soon begin leaving the big houses (as Madonna, The Eagles and Nine Inch Nails, for example, have left their music labels) to become “independents”. Cue the bankruptcy folks at the 6 biggest publishing companies. Those big companies have massive infrastructure to pay for — most of it will be without use soon. Smaller publishing houses might be more nimble.

A looming challenge will be too much control in the hands of a few retailers (Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Wal-Mart) who will drag us all through a time of their greed to grab outrageous margins and exclusivity — before they are toppled by the next wave of online retailing.

(FPP Note:  In addition to the text interview above, you my also listen to the extended audio interview with BruceBatchelor - 20 MB MP3 file.)

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Could our books be spying on us? 

While this might sound like the ravings of a paranoid delusional, marketers, supplied by willing service vendors, and armed with plenty of computing power, are able to extract a fair amount of information about our daily lives from the copious electronic records we leave behind in every transaction.   Consider some of the recent press (e.g. BusinessWeek) about “reality mining.”  Reality mining is the process of extracting information from the usage patterns from cell phones and other wireless devices.  This process is detailed in an article by two leading MIT reality mining researchers, entitled “Reality Mining: Sensing Complex Social Systems.”

Reality mining is a sophisticated new type of data mining that is enabled by copious bread crumbs of data generated when we use wireless devices.  When these devices are equipped with GPS chips, the data offers a geographical component to the behavior pattern being monitored.  Reality mining has been used for modeling how people might respond to terrorist attacks, help cities ease traffic congestion and help planners determine the best location for schools and hospitals.  In the future it might be used to track the spread of infectious diseases, according to an article in Technology Review.

Theis leads one to wonder whether - as we move more of our reading to portable electronic devices - someone might be combing through the electronic footprints we leave to try and tease our some information we might rather keep private.  As more book reading takes place online - whether as text on cell phones, e-book readers like Kindle, or simply as snippets delivered in your Blackberry’s e-mail - one can imagine that soon publishers and retailers might start collecting information about our e-reading habits such frequency, duration and even where / when (if the device is GPS enabled).  Combine this with the type of sales information already available and it provides a pretty powerful peek into what was once our private literary domain.

There are plenty of concerns about privacy.  Not only about the collection and sharing of data without consent, but also the interpretation of that data.  A year ago, the public was shocked by a story in the Washington Post and other newspapers about the existence and extent of a program of profiling of average Americans by the Department of Homeloand Security.  Concerns may shift now to the way in which commercial enterprises might attempt to use reality mining to tease out the nuances of our economic and social behavior.

Perhaps our best hope for defending our privacy in an “always on” society, is that human behavior is fickle and unpredictable.  Computer programs, however powerful, and data archive, however vast, represent past knowledge.  And, as every social scientist knows, the past does not necessarily predict the future.

But just in case, you may want to unplug your Kindle and simply curl up with your cozy - and silent - paper based book.

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Should we prepare for significantly higher book prices?  The signals from the commodities markets seem to be saying an emphatic “yes!”  Commodity prices are rising to new heights driven by a number of factors, including:  increased competition from rapidly industrializing economies like India and China; soaring energy costs; and, paradoxically from dislocations caused by the boom in biofuels.

Books require a host of input commodities for their production including:  paper, inks , chemicals used for coatings.  Here are a couple of examples. 

• As reported in PrintWeek, paper suppliers told printers earlier this year to expect price hikes of 8% or more.  In addition to increased manufacturing expenses, sky high energy costs are raising distributino costs. 
• Another commodity used in the production of paper is sulfuric acid.  This chemical is also used in the production of fertilizers.  The boom in corn planting, driven by the biofuels boom, is causing major shortages.  The price of the compound has shot a whopping 266% over the past 5 months according to a recent article in BusinessWeek. 

To date, producer price increases have been running ahead of price increases at the consumer level.  But as our current unpleasant experience with retail food and energy prices demonstrates, this won’t last long.  Unless there is a major cooling of economic growth, on a global scale, this commodities price surge may be longer lasting than previous cycles.  If real incomes continue to stagnate or decline, books may become a one of those discretionary expenditures that is the first to go when belts are tightened.

Many pundits have opined about the imminent demise of the printed book at the hands of technology - whether the Internet or e-books or books read on iPhones.  But, if, as author Richard Heinberg has suggested, we are witnessing “peak everything,” the real threat to the printed book might be ever increasing commodities prices, driven by scenarios outlined over three decades ago in Limits to Growth.

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Video games can now cost $20 million and up to produce.  Such high production costs raise the risk for bringing new games to market and have spawned a search for ways to extend a game’s IP via cross marketing in other media - notably books, merchandise and film.  Though long familiar to Hollywood moguls, this approach is now being pioneered by Electronic Arts in the gamer world. 

One example where this is being used in a new game due out in Fall 2008 called Dead Space.  A series of 6 graphic novels (or comic books) will be used as a prequel to the game to provide users with background information.   They will be offered for sale at $2.99 each, though a premium edition of the first issue with special cover art will be sold at a higher price point.  As reported on Kotaku, the series will be created by Image Comics with Ben Templesmith and Antony Johnston.  There’s even a book trailer that’s been created for the series.

This is somewhat the reverse of the journey made by Marvel Comics a few years ago, as chronicled in the New York Times.  Marvel’s comic books sales had slowed and the company almost went out of business.  But, like one of the super heroes it markets, the struggling publisher morphed into a Hollywood entertainment power with its own studio and licensing business.  Marvel has combined making its own super hero movies (where it can reap more of the rewards) with innovative financing (using its comic book IP as collateral) to emerge as a successful, profitable moviemaker.

Book to movie deals are continuing at a brisk pace, as evidenced by the regular reports in Publishers Weekly and industry sites such as Freelance Writing.  Major book publishers are also getting into the movie game.  This past fall, HarperCollins, a division of News Corp., announced a partnership with Sharp Independent to develop movies based on HarperCollins books.  These new collaborations, according to an article by Rachael Donadio, give publishers greater participation in movie profits (if there are any) and allow authors to have more say in the selection of screenwriters, directors and actors.   The closer ties with Hollywood may eventually change the nature of literary fiction as writers realize they may need to structure their stories for multiple mediums. 

Entertainment IP in the hgh stakes world of big media wants to be everywhere.  Look for lots more cross media collaborations (some might say contamination); and look for tomorrow’s most successful artists among those who are able to cross media divides and become multiple media “multi-talents.”

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At Future Perfect Publishing, I have often written about On Demand Book’s Espresso Book Machine(EBM) and the potential benefits of “print at the point of purchase.”  The EBM allows books to be downloaded and printed on demand, essentially at the time of purchase.   Now, according to BTW, Vermont’s Northshire Books is preparing to launch an in-store print-on-demand program. They are the first commercial bookstore in the world, to have one of the Espresso Book Machines on premises. 

General manager Chris Morrow told BTW that Northsire wants to:

. . . provide more choice for our customers.  We are bringing back into print local histories, and we will be publishing local authors. We will also have access to all public domain titles.

The store will publish titles under their Northshire Press imprint, and will also offer self-publishing services to customers under the Shires Press label.  Morrow indicated that most of the titles will be locally orientated, but sees the potential for significant expansion in the years ahead. 

An article in the Manchester Journalindicated that the store would charge between $.05 to $.08 per page.  The system is the first to be placed in a bookstore.  The other four installations have been at libraries and museums, most recently the New York Public Library.  While the system is not for commercial sale at this point in time, Morrow used his personal connections with On Demand Books to arrange to be a beta site.  Currently, only books that are out of copyright protection are available to be printed.  The founders of On Demand Books are working out arrangements with publishers to get greater access to copyrighted material as well.  The EBM has the potential to allow retailers to make less popular books readily available to customers without having to carry inventory.  From the publishers side, it could mean that stores could carry titles without the publisher having to pay for fulfillment, shipping and returns.  In both respects, it could take the “long tail” revolution to the next level.

Northshire Bookstorewas founded by Chris and Barbara Morrow in 1976.  The store opened its doors in Manchester Center, Vermont in  September, 1976 and has gone through two major expansions as well as the addition of a small restaurant called the Spiral Press Café.  On the store’s website, Barbara Morrow writes:

We will keep growing in the sense that we are always open to new ideas and interesting ventures. We live in a fast changing world, where one of the main constants is change itself. With your help, we hope to be able to respond.

By becoming the first commercial bookstore to use the Espresso Book Machine, they are continuing that pioneering spirit. 

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Humanity never tires of hearing a good story.  In ancient times, stories were told around a roaring campfire.  The oral tradition evolved and continues even after the written word had become the dominant way to retain cultural knowledge.   Radio and now podcasts are its modern incarnation. 

The  podcast novel is finding its place in the bibliosphere as a way for indie authors to build an audience when publishers won’t bite.  Some authors have achieved remarkable success telling their stories in the ”podiobooks” format.   JC Hutchins is one example.  He has built a highly active Internet community around his work without ever publishing in print form.  He has finally relented and decided to publish one of his novels, 7th Son: Descent, which goes to print iin 2009. 

So what is a podiobook?  A podiobook(or podcast novel) is a term coined by Evo Terra to describe serialized audio books which are made available in podcast format.   Innovative authors are evolving podcast novels by adding more production values.  In some sense, it may follow the creative arc of old time radio drama.  Some of these enhancements include:

• Guest voices on a podcast
• Sound effects
• Music to heighten the emotional impact
• Building community with the podcast audience by posting listener feedback on a blog associated with the podcast

All of these add emotional impact and help the reader better imagine the story.  Creating a podcast movel takes  work, however.  A lot more work than, say, creating and writing a blog.  Some of the considerations you will need to make include:

• Format - i.e. whether single or multiple voices, other production values, how long each episode should be, etc.
• Recording equipment and editing software - the tools you use will depend on the requirements of your podcast as well as your comfort level with technology; don’t underestimate the learning curve
• Time investment - episodes can easily take upwards of 8 hours to fully produce and distribute; longer if you’re adding voices, sound effects and music
• Costs for hosting, storage and throughput
• Tracking downloads and getting / responding to feedback from your audience

There are many good references to help you get started.  One of the best I’ve found is Podcasting Bible by Steve Mack and Mark Ratcliffe.  The authors provide a comprehensive overview of the subject and take you through the four stages of a podcast:

• Planning,
• Recording and editing
• Encoding
• Distribution

One of the things you’ll need to be especially aware of - success has its costs.  Generally, podcast distribution services charge for storage and throughput.  Throughput can be expensive if thousands of fans start downloading your serialized story podcasts.  Be sure to check the terms of your podcast hosting service or distribution network and calculate what a popular podcast might wind up costing you.

Even if you’re writing a work of non-fiction, you can use a podcast to promote your book.  Patrice Anne-Rutledge published an article in Writers Weekly on promoting books with podcasts.  The article is a comprehensive collection of tips and resources that budding podcast authors will find very useful. 

As a yonng child, one of my fondest memories was being in school and having the teacher read a story to me and my classmates at the end of the day.  Podcast stories, when done well, let me recaptre that experience.  Podcast novels and poidobooks are just the latest step in the great oral tradition of storytelling.

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Scrolls, after a lengthy and venerable history, disappeared with the crumbling of the Roman empire, to be replaced in late antiquity by the paged, bound and covered book, or codex.  Books were more portable, easier to read and easier to store.   End of story for the scroll, right?  Well maybe not.

I like to follow developments in new technologies that could one day impact the way we read books.  Two such technologies that has seen steady evolution over the last decade are electronic ink and flexible transistors. 

Grayscale electronic ink works by by incorporating black and white pigment chips in fluid filled microcapsules and placing the capsules between two charged electrodes, the upper electrode being on a transparent substrate.  By changing the charges on the electrodes, the pigment chips can be made to rise or fall in the microcapsules, thus producing black or white pixels on a screen.

E-Ink, one of the companies pioneering electronic ink, recently announced a new color electronic ink technologybased on the use of photonic crystals.  Photonic crystals have been the target of intense research, primarily for their potential in light based computing.  They were inspired by the structures that produce natural iridescence in butterfly wings and abalone shells.  (See The Gecko’s Foot by Peter Forbes for an excellent description of this technology.)  The company has also increased the frame refresh rate of the display from one frame per second to 30 frames per second, which makes it possible to display video as well as static text.

The other developing technology is flexible transistors, which are making possible displays which can be shaped in all sorts of ways - e.g. as curved signage.  Because the displays are flexible, they can be rolled up like scrolls.  Engadget showcased E-ink’s new e-paper displays in a recent article.  A combination cell phone and e-book, with a roll up display, called a called a cellular book, has been shown by Telecom Italia and Polymer Vision.  The approach of using a roll up display gets around the small screen problem for cell phones with pretensions to being full blow mobile computers.  Pull out the screen to get a comfortable viewing surface and then roll it back up when you are done. 

The screen is certainly large enough to allow book text to be read comfortably.  And the device is certainly portable, with plenty of storage capacity.  Perhaps, after almost two millennia is retirement, the scroll might be making a comeback. 

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We knew it had to happen sooner or later.  Computers writing books.  A recent article in BusinesWeek highlighted the exploits of Philip Parker, who has patented a process for using computer software to write books automatically.  According to his web page, Parker is a Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD, a French business school.  The article claims that to date, Parker has written 300,000 books this way.  The works are non-fiction and tend to be highly specific.  His software searches databases for information on a specific topic and then populates a template.  He is as circumspect about his sales as he is about the details of the process. 

Could this be the end game for the long tail of book publishing?  Perhaps not in general, but his use of technology shows that software automation could someday play a bigger role in very formulaic or highly structured genres.  Imagine HAL, the demented computer from 2001: A Space Odyssey, writing romance novels. 

Google servers, which are at the heart of web search engines, have been a boon for book marketers wanting to get the word out about their titles, or for authors doing research.  But now, Google is exploring a new kind of computing, ”cloud computing,” which allows hundreds or thousands of computers to tackle large problems.  These computers are linked by algorithms similar to those the company uses to manage the millions of daily search requests.  In a sense, it is industrial computing.  Other companies with large server famrs - Yahoo!, Microsoft, IBM and Amazon - are also exploring this new form big utility computing power for sale.  This approach to computing essentially frees the user from Moore’s Law for single processors. 

Now imagine a few years hence when cloud computing has the kinks worked out and sports an affordable entry price point for aspiring authors.  Turn your high strength algorithms loose on an information rich environment and you might produce some interesting reads.  Our ability to imagine what we could do with such tools may be our only limiting factor.

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